Domestic Rice Prices May Continue To Increase Due To Low Production Forecast, High Demand, Says Govt

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As the paddy acreage this kharif season is lower as compared with the last year, the food ministry has said domestic prices of rice are showing an increasing trend and it might continue to increase. The rice production is forecast to be lower by about 6 million tonnes this year and non-basmati export sees an 11 per cent year-on-year increase.

“The retail price of rice showed an increase of 0.24 per cent over the week, 2.46 per cent over the month and 8.67 per cent over the year as on September 19, 2022. There is an increase of 15.14 per cent on an average of five years,” the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution said in a statement on Thursday.

It added that the likely shortfall in area and production of paddy for the kharif season 2022 is 6 per cent. In domestic production, 60-70 LMT (lakh metric tonnes) estimated production loss was earlier anticipated.

“Now, production loss of 40-50 LMT is expected and production output is not expected to be higher this year but only at par with previous year,” the ministry said.

It also said there has been a rise in global demand for broken rice due to geopolitical scenario, which has impacted the price movement of commodities including those related to animal feed. Export of broken rice has increased by more than 43 times in past four years (21.31 LMT exported from April-August 2022 compared to 0.51 LMT in the same period in 2019) with a significant jump in 2021-22 over last year. In the year 2021, the quantity exported was 15.8 LMT (April-August 2021). Prices of broken rice rose significantly in the current year.

“Domestic price of broken rice, which was Rs 16 per kg in the open market, has increased to about Rs 22 per kg in states. The poultry sector and animal husbandry farmers were impacted the most due to price hike of feed ingredients as about 60-65 per cent inputs cost for poultry feed comes from broken rice,” the ministry said.

It said any increase in prices of feedstock are reflected in price of poultry products like milk, egg, meat, etc. adding to food inflation.

“The domestic prices of rice are showing increasing trend and it may continue to increase due to low production forecast by about 6 MMT (million metric tonnes) of paddy and 11 per cent increase in export of non-basmati compared to the corresponding period of last year,” the ministry added.

This year, Jharkhand witnessed a lower paddy coverage by 9.37 lakh hectares, followed by Madhya Pradesh (6.32 lakh hectares), West Bengal (3.65 lakh hectares), Uttar Pradesh (2.48 lakh hectares) and Bihar (1.97 lakh hectares) on account of poor rainfall.

India is the world’s second-largest rice producer after China and commands a 40 per cent global market share.

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